Global military expenditure has entered a sustained expansionary cycle. Munitions consumption in the Russo-Ukrainian and Iran wars has significantly depleted Western stockpiles and exposed decades of underinvestment in defence production. Together, these pressures are driving rapid rearmament and capacity expansion. This shift will drive demand growth for key commodity inputs well beyond today’s conflicts. In our view, defence spending will ultimately be several times more important to commodity consumption than Chinese urbanisation was.
Portfolio Manager Ben Cleary explains below why global rearmament is likely to endure and how it is driving demand for tungsten, copper and metal powders—materials that are essential to modern defence systems, difficult to substitute and constrained in supply. The Tribeca Global Natural Resources Strategy has strategic exposure across this value chain through companies such as Allied Critical Metals, Cobre and 6K Additive. More than half of the portfolio is directly benefiting from higher defence spending, and we believe these holdings could deliver 5-10x upside in the coming years.